Azerbaijan and Armenia: A Real Peace Hinges on Constitutional Change

Azerbaijan says it is living in a state of “real peace” with Armenia, but the final signing of a formal peace agreement remains blocked by a single, critical issue: the preamble of Armenia’s constitution. That preamble references a Soviet-era document calling for the reunification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory Azerbaijan reclaimed in a 2023 offensive. For Baku, removing this clause is non-negotiable.

Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to Azerbaijan’s president and head of its foreign policy department, told Reuters on the sidelines of a forum in Shusha that the two countries have made significant progress. “We are living in conditions of real peace,” he said, pointing to growing direct contacts, bilateral trade, and increased supplies of Azerbaijani oil products to Armenia. Yet the constitutional hurdle remains.

What is the constitutional sticking point?

The preamble of Armenia’s constitution contains a reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence, which itself calls for the reunification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous region within Soviet Azerbaijan that functioned as a de facto independent, ethnically Armenian state for three decades. After Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive in 2023, most of its 100,000 residents fled to Armenia.

“The form of constitutional changes is Armenia’s internal matter,” Hajiyev said. “What is important for Azerbaijan is that the provisions we regard as territorial claims against our country are formally removed, whether through the adoption of a new constitution or another legal mechanism.” He added that once this issue is resolved, “there will be no obstacles to signing the final peace agreement.”

What are the prospects for constitutional reform in Armenia?

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has publicly stated his desire to hold a referendum on a new constitution, with a draft expected by the end of 2026. However, his Civil Contract party lacks the constitutional majority in parliament needed to call such a vote. The opposition, dominated by pro-Russian groups, has not signaled support.

Hajiyev made clear that publishing a draft alone would not be sufficient for Baku to sign a peace deal. The actual removal of the territorial claims is the prerequisite.

What is the TRIPP corridor and why does it matter?

A lasting peace could unlock significant economic potential. Hajiyev said Azerbaijan has received “serious and positive signals” from the United States that construction on a Washington-backed transport corridor could begin this autumn. Dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP),” the proposed 43-kilometer (27-mile) corridor would cut across Armenia, giving Azerbaijan direct access to its exclave of Nakhchivan and to its close ally, Turkey.

The route would better connect Asia to Europe, a priority for Washington as it seeks to diversify energy and trade flows away from Russia due to the war in Ukraine. “Our position is that this (TRIPP) should be implemented as soon as possible,” Hajiyev said. He noted that infrastructure extending to Azerbaijan’s southwestern Zangilan region would be largely completed by the end of 2026, after which it could be connected to planned infrastructure in Armenia and Turkey.

What are the broader geopolitical implications?

A formal peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia would reshape regional dynamics. It could reopen trade and transport links across the South Caucasus, strengthening connections between Asia and Europe while altering the influence of Russia, Turkey, and Iran. For Namib Daily readers, this is a case study in how post-conflict diplomacy, economic liberalization, and international investment can converge to create stability and growth — a model with potential lessons for other regions.

Frequently asked questions

Why does Azerbaijan insist on Armenia changing its constitution?

Azerbaijan views the preamble of Armenia’s constitution, which references a Soviet-era document calling for the reunification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, as a formal territorial claim against its sovereignty. Removing this reference is seen as essential for a lasting peace.

Can Armenia change its constitution without a referendum?

Under Armenia’s current legal framework, a constitutional change requires a referendum. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s party lacks the parliamentary majority to call one, and the opposition has not committed to supporting the move.

What is the TRIPP corridor?

The TRIPP corridor is a proposed 43-kilometer transport route backed by the United States. It would cross Armenian territory to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan and Turkey, aiming to improve trade links between Asia and Europe.