The race to lead the European Central Bank is taking shape, and France is quietly pushing a deal that would put a Dutchman in the top chair, as long as a French economist takes the second most powerful seat at the table.
People familiar with the matter told Reuters that France would support Klaas Knot, the former head of the Dutch central bank, to succeed Christine Lagarde as ECB president. In exchange, Paris wants the role of chief economist to go to a French candidate. The informal proposal has the backing of French President Emmanuel Macron, according to the sources, but it is likely to face stiff resistance from Germany, setting the stage for high-stakes political bargaining among the euro zone's heavyweights.
Macron's office did not immediately return a request for comment, while Knot declined to comment. The Dutch Finance ministry was not immediately available for comment, and the ECB also declined to comment.
Why is the ECB succession race heating up now?
The succession race has gained momentum in recent weeks amid speculation that Lagarde and fellow Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel might both step down before their terms expire in late 2027, hastening a reshuffle at the top of the ECB.
The ECB president and five other members of the Executive Board are appointed by consensus among leaders of the currency bloc's 21 countries, with the three largest economies, Germany, France and Italy, holding de facto permanent representation.
An early exit by Lagarde, who is French, and Germany's Schnabel would accelerate decisions due to be made next year and create the conditions for a broad deal to fill their roles and that of Chief Economist Philip Lane, whose term expires in May.
France backs Knot over de Cos
Under the plan, Knot, who led the Dutch central bank from 2011 to 2025, would take the presidency with France's blessing, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity because such negotiations are private and the proposal remains informal.
Knot is viewed by market participants as a pragmatist, naturally inclined toward tighter monetary policy but flexible enough to shift course as economic data dictates.